Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xea79…bd24 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-11%) realized −$24 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$35
crypto 13% +$1
politics 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -43.5% -48.9% 0% 0% -43.3%
≤30d 2 -43.5% -48.9% 0% 0% -43.3%
≤90d 2 -43.5% -48.9% 0% 0% -43.3%
all 2 -43.5% -48.9% 0% 0% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 0% -43.3%
10% -53.8% 0% -48.7%
15% -58.3% 0% -53.7%
20% -62.4% 0% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$11 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)2 / 9
History coverage78d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$18 -34%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $34 1h
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $78 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 8d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.22 · official $285.76 (match) · 20 history records