Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea77…ed25 crypto 714 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$354 (-1%) realized −$353 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate85%606W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$10
14 days+$28
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$327
other 32% −$695
politics 4% −$53
world 1% +$4
weather 1% −$44
sports 0% +$4
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.7% -16.5% 88% 8% -8.7%
≤30d 90 -11.9% -20.3% 81% 11% -13.9%
≤90d 345 -3.1% -12.3% 89% 6% -9.5%
all 710 -1.8% -11.1% 85% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 8% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 3% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$353
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses606 / 104
Open positions4
Markets (closed)710 / 714
History coverage211d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 710 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? No 55¢ 46¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 69¢ 75¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $152 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $91 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 18 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $67 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $136 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $97 +$1 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$8 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$6 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $28 −$23 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $153 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$20 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $28 −$24 -85%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $29 −$25 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $82 −$61 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? BUY No 55¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 98¢ $94 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $18 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $72 34h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 92¢ $9 34h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL No 99¢ $19 34h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL No 99¢ $34 34h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $20 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $69 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $69 47h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 65¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 86¢ $36 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.12 · official $136.12 (match) · 2235 history records