Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xea77…82ee sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$293 (+12%) realized +$275 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$173
14 days+$245
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$174
other 35% +$57
crypto 9% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.0% +14.9% 73% 73% +18.1%
≤30d 29 -5.1% -14.2% 59% 59% +4.1%
≤90d 29 -5.1% -14.2% 59% 59% +4.1%
all 29 -5.1% -14.2% 59% 59% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 59% +4.1%
10% -22.4% 59% -5.8%
15% -29.9% 38% -14.9%
20% -36.7% 21% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$776
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage14d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $208 $230 +$22 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $76 $82 +$5 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $53 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $40 +$20 +49%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $71 +$10 +14%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$50 +100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$20 +39%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $25 −$12 -49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$45 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$1 +37%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 +$42 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $237 +$60 +25%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $222 +$50 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $41 −$34 -84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $81 +$22 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $70 +$18 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 +$30 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$21 +26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$61 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$17 -56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 18m
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $23 22m
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 36m
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $60 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $78 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $40 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $125 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $13 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $12 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $38 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $199 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $297 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $40 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $13 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $35 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $17 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $58 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $45 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.48 · official $776.52 (match) · 77 history records