Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea76…88ec crypto 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-9%) realized −$113 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%175W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$158
crypto 36% −$99
sports 8% +$101
world 0% +$7
politics 1% $0
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.8% -41.1% 50% 50% -38.0%
≤30d 2 -34.8% -41.1% 50% 50% -38.0%
≤90d 332 -14.1% -22.3% 52% 51% -23.4%
all 343 -13.9% -22.1% 51% 50% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 50% -24.8%
10% -29.5% 47% -32.0%
15% -36.3% 41% -38.6%
20% -42.6% 29% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses175 / 168
Open positions2
Markets (closed)343 / 345
History coverage129d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $250 $233 −$17 (-7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 73¢ 88¢ $71 $87 +$15 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $55 +$17 +30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 29 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$2 +82%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +54%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +54%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $72 59m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $55 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $255 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 57d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 58d
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 58d
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.49 · official $319.66 (match) · 554 history records