Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xea6a…a241 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$110 (+1%) realized +$114 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 60% −$31
other 16% −$2
world 16% −$4
politics 5% −$10
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 0% -10.0%
all 5 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1,686
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)5 / 23
History coverage47d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 19 $1,630 −$51 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $4,172 +$20 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 21 $515 −$10 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 21 $1,574 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $21 34m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 34m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $151 35m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $101 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $101 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 70¢ $1,579 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 70¢ $1,630 44h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $2,091 44h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $2,104 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $2,101 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $502 29d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 89¢ $1,565 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL Yes $4 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $501 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $502 36d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY Yes $13 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,686.23 · official $1,686.23 (match) · 34 history records