Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xea69…1fc8 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+1%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$15
14 days+$86
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$5
world 18% −$2
other 18% −$12
culture 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% +$99
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.5% +9.1% 50% 17% -9.0%
≤30d 15 +17.7% +6.5% 40% 20% -8.2%
≤90d 19 +8.7% -1.6% 42% 16% -8.4%
all 50 +3.3% -6.5% 44% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 6% -8.7%
10% -15.4% 6% -17.4%
15% -23.6% 6% -25.4%
20% -31.1% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.06 per $1 lost it wins $5.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage410d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 30 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 30 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 30 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$19 +124%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 22 $798 −$1 -0%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Jun 22 $805 −$1 -0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $79 +$73 +93%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 19? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Jun 18 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $685 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel Jun 10 $15 −$1 -3%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Jun 10 $14 +$7 +52%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 19? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in January? Feb 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on January 30? Feb 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 5? Jan 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 1-7? Jan 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 25? Dec 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Justin Fields win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 06 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4700 on September 3? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Sep 17 $20 $0 -0%
Solana above $250 on September 5? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jul 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $360 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Artés win the Chilean presidential election? May 28 $333 $0 -0%
Will Letitia James win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? May 21 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 16 $329 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $320 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $843 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $844 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $826 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $638 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 5d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 7d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $796 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $804 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $805 7d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $798 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $835 7d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? SELL No 100¢ $684 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 11d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY No 100¢ $685 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 11d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $79 12d
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel BUY Jake Matthews 51¢ $15 33d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Perry 65¢ $14 48d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 64¢ $10 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.01 · official $16.01 (match) · 128 history records