trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 25% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 18% | 0% | -10.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 18% | 0% | -10.6% |
| all | 28 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 36% | 4% | -12.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.6% | 4% | -12.5% |
| 10% | -21.0% | 0% | -20.9% |
| 15% | -28.6% | 0% | -28.5% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -35.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | $29 | $30 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $45 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 04 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 03 | $22 | −$4 | -16% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 03 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Dec 13 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 10 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Apr 07 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 05 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | Apr 05 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 05 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 04 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Apr 02 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 31 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 31 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 19 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 10 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 10 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 09 | $14 | $0 | -0% |