Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xea60…1ced other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,423 (-1%) realized −$1,423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%28W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$969per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$134
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$60
politics 30% −$58
sports 9% −$1,435
economics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$4
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 36 -6.2% -15.2% 6% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -9.9% -18.5% 4% 1% -11.0%
all 166 +1.0% -8.6% 17% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 11% -10.3%
10% -17.3% 11% -18.9%
15% -25.3% 8% -26.7%
20% -32.7% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,476) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$17 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$765
Realized−$1,423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses28 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)166 / 169
History coverage154d
Avg bet$969
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $292 $292 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $249 $249 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $225 $225 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,998 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 07 $515 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $609 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $401 +$2 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,817 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,843 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,963 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,334 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $571 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $5,715 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $850 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $50 +$40 +79%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,856 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,301 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $2,950 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,857 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $336 41h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $337 43h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $409 43h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $409 45h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $401 45h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $402 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $316 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $316 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $291 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $291 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $249 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $471 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $472 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $439 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $439 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $617 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $618 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $618 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $618 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $606 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $607 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $590 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $591 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $514 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $515 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $605 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $606 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $66 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $655 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.20 · official $765.20 (match) · 509 history records