Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea5d…70b8 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 40L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 34% +$3
politics 16% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 12% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -9.4%
all 60 -2.9% -12.2% 33% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% -9.2%
10% -20.6% 2% -17.9%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $7 $0 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $57 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $16 −$1 -4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 08 $4 $0 +11%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $17 $0 +1%
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 28h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $41 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $36 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $38 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $16 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records