Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea5c…2075 other 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate8%18W / 212L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$28
sports 23% −$23
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$7
culture 6% −$7
world 6% −$6
crypto 4% +$20
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 1% -9.6%
all 230 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses18 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage127d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $430 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $768 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $640 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $78 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $429 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $364 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $80 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $306 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $106 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $808 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $260 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $177 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $172 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $481 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $73 8m
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $73 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $73 2h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 2h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 4h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $73 5h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $73 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $73 10h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $73 16h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $73 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $73 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $73 21h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $73 22h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 24h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $73 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $73 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $73 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $74 36h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $74 38h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 40h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $74 41h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $74 42h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $74 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $74 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $74 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $74 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $74 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $74 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $74 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.46 · official $72.46 (match) · 1295 history records