Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea5b…3437 other 32 markets active 5d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-5%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$28
sports 34% +$24
world 7% −$9
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -54.2% -58.6% 33% 17% -28.2%
≤30d 32 +13.3% +2.5% 41% 31% -16.3%
≤90d 32 +13.3% +2.5% 41% 31% -16.3%
all 32 +13.3% +2.5% 41% 31% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 31% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 25% -24.3%
15% -16.3% 19% -31.6%
20% -24.5% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$9 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$19 -64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$4 -31%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$19 +610%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 7d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records