Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EA
0xea5b…6361
crypto · 104 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$82 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107 · open +$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses51 / 51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage368d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 39¢ 90¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+129%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the US strike Somalia next? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 24, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? No 65¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Iran strike on US military by February 28? No 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$13 +87%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? May 26 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 14 $50 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 14 $132 +$35 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 14 $106 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 14 $147 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 14 $78 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 14 $119 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $32 +$23 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 01 $54 −$43 -80%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bodø/Glimt advance to the round of 16? Apr 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 01 $296 −$160 -54%
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 19m? Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 31 $6 +$9 +133%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 25 $11 −$11 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 25 $14 +$4 +31%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 25 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 25 $8 +$2 +26%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 06 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 06 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 06 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 06 $78 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 06 $38 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 06 $158 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 06 $58 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 06 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 06 $8 −$1 -9%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 06 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 06 $511 −$163 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 06 $290 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 06 $570 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 06 $268 +$61 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 06 $196 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 06 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $15 +$12 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 06 $79 +$31 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 06 $114 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 06 $54 +$25 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 06 $17 +$6 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$57
other 5% −$59
world 3% $0
politics 1% −$18
finance 1% +$67
culture 1% −$22
sports 1% +$11
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 2h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $7 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $42 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $50 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $167 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $80 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $132 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $56 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $50 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $106 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $97 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $58 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $50 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $90 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $78 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $79 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $69 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $27 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $50 59d
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 79d
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 79d
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 79d
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $7 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +86.9% +69.1% 100% 100% +69.1%
≤30d 2 +43.2% +29.6% 50% 50% +43.9%
≤90d 29 -26.9% -33.8% 38% 34% -22.4%
all 102 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 42% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 42% -11.8%
10% -29.0% 29% -20.3%
15% -35.9% 21% -28.0%
20% -42.1% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.38 · official $57.38 (match) · 302 history records