Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea58…d62f crypto 544 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$928 (-2%) realized −$809 · open −$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate71%386W / 155L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days−$461
14 days−$770
30 days−$934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$349
sports 11% −$783
other 1% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -8.6% -17.3% 74% 28% -14.0%
≤30d 399 -5.5% -14.5% 76% 22% -11.1%
≤90d 541 -4.2% -13.4% 71% 30% -10.9%
all 541 -4.2% -13.4% 71% 30% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 30% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 27% -19.5%
15% -29.2% 25% -27.2%
20% -36.2% 19% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$32 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$809
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses386 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions3
Markets (closed)541 / 544
History coverage60d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 64¢ $75 $63 −$12 (-16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 79¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $95 +$4 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $36 −$1 -3%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$67 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $60 +$17 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $45 +$4 +10%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$38 +45%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $49 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $85 +$7 +8%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $42 +$18 +42%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $150 +$72 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$32 -85%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$12 -80%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $30 −$29 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$19 +34%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $95 −$94 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $57 53m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $109 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $109 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $108 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.89 · official $62.89 (match) · 2193 history records