trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 50% | 50% | -39.1% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -43.5% | -48.9% | 44% | 25% | -25.4% |
| all | 36 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 69% | 17% | -13.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.8% | 17% | -13.3% |
| 10% | -35.6% | 14% | -21.6% |
| 15% | -41.9% | 11% | -29.2% |
| 20% | -47.6% | 6% | -36.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $108 | $107 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-0%) |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 70¢ | 88¢ | $8 | $10 | +$2 (+26%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Jun 12 | $53 | +$34 | +65% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves | Jun 04 | $89 | −$88 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 25 | $108 | −$106 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $104 | +$45 | +44% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | May 14 | $104 | −$103 | -99% |
| Ducks vs. Golden Knights | May 06 | $103 | −$102 | -99% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | May 06 | $226 | +$52 | +23% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | May 06 | $499 | +$12 | +2% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 24 | $114 | −$112 | -99% |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? | Apr 16 | $76 | −$75 | -98% |
| Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Apr 16 | $50 | −$49 | -99% |
| Hawks vs. Heat | Apr 16 | $143 | +$89 | +62% |
| Pistons vs. 76ers | Apr 04 | $29 | −$29 | -98% |
| Magic vs. Pelicans | Apr 04 | $85 | −$84 | -98% |
| Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 04 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | Apr 04 | $939 | +$37 | +4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 16 | $885 | +$88 | +10% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 07 | $842 | +$47 | +6% |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly | Feb 23 | $783 | +$59 | +8% |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | Feb 11 | $764 | +$19 | +2% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 04 | $723 | +$40 | +6% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | Jan 15 | $714 | +$9 | +1% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Jan 07 | $686 | +$28 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 20 | $26 | +$10 | +39% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 05 | $675 | −$675 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? | Dec 05 | $1,268 | +$57 | +4% |
| Jets vs. Patriots | Nov 22 | $1,179 | +$89 | +8% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Nov 14 | $1,089 | +$90 | +8% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 10 | $26 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 10 | $1,018 | +$70 | +7% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 01 | $152 | −$152 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | Nov 01 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 31? | Nov 01 | $1,148 | +$14 | +1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 31 | $79 | +$1 | +1% |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 31 | $74 | +$10 | +14% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 31 | $893 | +$16 | +2% |