Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EA 0xea4c…9f3b other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$151 (+8%) realized +$79 · open +$72

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day14.4pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)-7.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+2.1%	-7.6%	70%	70%	-1.7%
≤30d	10	+2.1%	-7.6%	70%	70%	-1.7%
≤90d	10	+2.1%	-7.6%	70%	70%	-1.7%
all	10	+2.1%	-7.6%	70%	70%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.6%	70%	-1.7%
10%	-16.4%	60%	-11.1%
15%	-24.5%	60%	-19.7%
20%	-31.9%	20%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$65 vs −$109 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.39 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$420

Realized+$79

Unrealized+$72

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions8

Markets (closed)10 / 18

History coverage3d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day14.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	26¢	50¢	$78	$148	+$70 (+90%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$115	$122	+$8 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$51	$52	+$1 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$43	$42	−$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$30	$29	−$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	53¢	52¢	$16	$16	−$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?	Yes	83¢	44¢	$10	$5	−$4 (-46%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?	Yes	81¢	70¢	$6	$5	−$1 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?	Jun 19	$333	+$173	+52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	Jun 19	$236	−$236	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$57	−$57	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$43	+$34	+79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$50	+$19	+38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$35	−$35	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$57	+$27	+46%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Jun 17	$140	+$56	+40%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Jun 17	$413	+$87	+21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$137	+$63	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	28m
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$16	52m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	31¢	$31	1h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	81¢	$6	1h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	83¢	$10	1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	34¢	$21	1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$118	1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?	BUY No	86¢	$78	16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$0	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$7	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$23	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$3	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$15	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$14	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$4	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	69¢	$70	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	74¢	$101	18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	57¢	$57	18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	77¢	$76	22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$43	24h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?	BUY No	61¢	$124	39h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?	BUY No	60¢	$122	40h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	88¢	$84	40h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	26¢	$74	40h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	26¢	$4	40h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?	BUY No	58¢	$9	41h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	63¢	$6	41h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	63¢	$7	41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$12	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.89 · official $419.83 (match) · 49 history records