Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EA
0xea4c…d102
other · 38 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$7 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage469d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $15 +$2 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $2 $0 +24%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 30 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $24 $0 +0%
Bolsonaro arrested before April? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $1 $0 -29%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $25 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Trump say 'Gulf of America' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 20 $22 +$1 +4%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 20 $20 $0 +2%
Tulane vs. Tulsa Mar 04 $13 +$9 +70%
Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$1
other 34% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
sports 7% +$10
politics 5% +$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $53 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $9 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $9 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $54 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $54 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $48 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $48 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $15 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $11 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $32 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $44 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $18 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $25 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -3.2% -12.5% 46% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 5% -8.8%
10% -20.8% 5% -17.5%
15% -28.5% 3% -25.5%
20% -35.5% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.92 · official $52.92 (match) · 124 history records