Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EA 0xea48…c596 crypto 1751 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,446 (-8%) realized −$12,640 · open −$6,806
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%960W / 816L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$3,924est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$556
7 days−$443
14 days−$1,011
30 days+$15,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$12,132
crypto 2% −$145
world 0% +$2
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -22.0% -29.4% 11% 11% -19.2%
≤30d 106 -3.0% -12.2% 37% 37% +4.4%
≤90d 890 +47.1% +33.1% 81% 78% -11.2%
all 1776 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 52% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 52% -11.8%
10% -21.7% 47% -20.2%
15% -29.3% 41% -27.9%
20% -36.2% 35% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -56% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$142 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$2,094
Realized−$12,640
Unrealized−$6,806
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses960 / 816
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$3,924
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1776 / 1751
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$147
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1776 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $2,000 $1,980 −$20 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 45¢ 1¢ $6,900 $114 −$6,786 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-14? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Heat (-7.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -109%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Pacers (-4.5) Jun 18 $7 −$10 -148%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$2 +142%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-01-11? Jun 18 $10 −$33 -332%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$29 -290%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 +$13 +4752%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
SK Brann vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$20 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5 Jun 18 $1 +$4 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5 Jun 18 $7 −$8 -108%
Will Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,602 −$76 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,633 −$117 -7%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $101 +$103 +101%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $9 +$10 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $9 +$6 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $2,191 −$2,160 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $244 +$236 +97%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $1,907 −$1,880 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 09 $1,773 −$1,750 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2,031 3m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $1,627 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $1,728 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $1,829 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $1,829 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $568 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $957 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1,515 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $408 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $408 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $408 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $408 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $910 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $591 10h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $101 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $9 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 7d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $9 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,095 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,095 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 51¢ $883 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Nigeria 50¢ $244 8d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 53¢ $892 8d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $1,014 8d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 8d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 52¢ $1,014 9d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 52¢ $1,014 9d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 56¢ $891 9d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 56¢ $882 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,094.07 · official $2,094.07 (match) · 3500 history records