Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

EA 0xea47…5783 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$251 (+3%) realized +$442 · open −$191

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate92%12W / 1L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$480per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$2,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$830

7 days+$830

14 days+$830

30 days+$830

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)+0.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+22.4%	+10.7%	83%	50%	+22.2%
≤30d	6	+22.4%	+10.7%	83%	50%	+22.2%
≤90d	12	+11.4%	+0.8%	92%	25%	+8.0%
all	13	+10.6%	+0.1%	92%	23%	+6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.1%	23%	+6.3%
10%	-9.5%	23%	-3.9%
15%	-18.2%	15%	-13.2%
20%	-26.3%	15%	-21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

75% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late +19% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$33 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×26.55 per $1 lost it wins $26.55

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage

Net worth$2,177

Realized+$442

Unrealized−$191

Win rate (resolved)92%

Wins / losses12 / 1

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage93d

Avg bet$480

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	No	97¢	97¢	$1,742	$1,742	+$0 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	43¢	30¢	$626	$435	−$191 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5	Jun 18	$547	+$553	+101%
Ghana to win the second half?	Jun 17	$33	−$33	-100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$76	+$74	+97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$84	+$2	+3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,007	+$73	+7%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$620	+$160	+26%
Will "The Romantic" by Bruno Mars be the Billboard 200 #1 album for th	Apr 28	$39	$0	+0%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners	Apr 28	$94	+$1	+1%
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener	Apr 28	$185	$0	+0%
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t	Apr 28	$187	+$1	+1%
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?	Mar 21	$944	+$5	+0%
Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in March?	Mar 20	$504	+$1	+0%
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week	Mar 17	$499	+$5	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$69	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$131	2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$437	2h
Ghana to win the second half?	BUY No	66¢	$33	3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$76	7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$932	11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$75	12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	97¢	$775	13h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5	BUY Over	49¢	$547	16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo?	BUY No	97¢	$84	17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	97¢	$969	19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY No	79¢	$620	22h
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?	SELL Yes	100¢	$949	88d
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener	BUY No	100¢	$185	89d
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t	BUY No	99¢	$187	89d
Will "The Romantic" by Bruno Mars be the Billboard 200 #1 album for th	BUY No	100¢	$39	89d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners	BUY Yes	99¢	$94	89d
Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in March?	BUY No	100¢	$504	92d
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week	SELL Yes	100¢	$504	92d
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?	BUY Yes	99¢	$944	92d
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week	BUY Yes	99¢	$499	92d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,177.40 · official $2,177.40 (match) · 31 history records