Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea40…098b crypto 661 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,630 (-12%) realized −$5,631 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%143W / 689L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,231
7 days−$3,231
14 days−$3,231
30 days−$3,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,974
other 1% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -71.8% -74.5% 10% 4% -35.2%
≤30d 211 -71.8% -74.5% 10% 4% -35.2%
≤90d 832 -46.1% -51.2% 17% 9% -19.4%
all 832 -46.1% -51.2% 17% 9% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.2% 9% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -55.9% 7% -27.1%
15% -60.1% 6% -34.1%
20% -64.0% 6% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$14 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$5,631
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses143 / 689
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)832 / 661
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 832 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 74¢ 80¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$20 +3355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$10 +999%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $157 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $123 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $36 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $160 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $156 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $83 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $75 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $191 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $191 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $425 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $421 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $125 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $356 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $377 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $645 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $412 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1,063 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $569 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $564 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.61 · official $4.78 · 3500 history records