Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xea3f…9a9e other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+18%) realized +$195 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$77
world 24% −$77
sports 18% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.7% +24.6% 50% 50% +18.9%
≤30d 6 +37.7% +24.6% 50% 50% +18.9%
≤90d 6 +37.7% +24.6% 50% 50% +18.9%
all 6 +37.7% +24.6% 50% 50% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.6% 50% +18.9%
10% ← realistic here +12.7% 50% +7.6%
15% +1.8% 50% -2.8%
20% -8.2% 50% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$34 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 36¢ 24¢ $240 $163 −$77 (-32%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $50 $119 +$69 (+138%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $54 +$97 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$70 -61%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $131 +$94 +71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $168 −$31 -18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $159 +$111 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 0m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $98 13m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $146 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $151 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $53 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $45 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $54 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $55 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $115 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $225 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $131 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $66 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $131 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $83 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 42¢ $72 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $55 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 17¢ $60 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $58 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.19 · official $318.06 · 21 history records