Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xea3b…e3d9 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-7%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$4
sports 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.8% -26.6% 50% 17% -21.0%
≤30d 6 -18.8% -26.6% 50% 17% -21.0%
≤90d 6 -18.8% -26.6% 50% 17% -21.0%
all 6 -18.8% -26.6% 50% 17% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 17% -21.0%
10% -33.6% 17% -28.6%
15% -40.0% 17% -35.5%
20% -45.9% 17% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.89 · official $10.89 (match) · 17 history records