Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea3a…4eeb sports 317 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$223 (+1%) realized +$103 · open +$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate78%238W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$104
14 days+$157
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 37% +$474
sports 33% +$99
world 22% −$427
politics 5% +$57
crypto 1% −$11
tech 1% +$7
other 1% −$7
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +6.8% -3.4% 85% 55% +0.4%
≤30d 83 +9.5% -0.9% 77% 47% +0.5%
≤90d 280 +2.9% -6.9% 76% 36% -6.1%
all 307 +2.6% -7.1% 78% 34% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 34% -6.2%
10% -16.0% 20% -15.2%
15% -24.1% 14% -23.4%
20% -31.6% 11% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$4,834
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses238 / 69
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions10
Markets (closed)307 / 317
History coverage136d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,000 $3,049 +$49 (+2%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $695 $717 +$21 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $475 $488 +$13 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? No 88¢ 90¢ $201 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? No 87¢ 100¢ $148 $170 +$22 (+15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $121 $128 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 21? No 93¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $181 +$23 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $97 +$14 +15%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $61 +$12 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $169 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $86 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $86 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $48 −$7 -14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $54 +$5 +9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $101 +$23 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $151 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $30 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 +$52 +552%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 05 $147 −$12 -8%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $84 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $177 +$21 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $153 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $121 +$12 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $40 −$22 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $17 8h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 73¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $44 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $111 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $70 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $50 27h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 93¢ $73 33h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $101 37h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $30 37h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $30 37h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $26 37h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $184 37h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $97 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,833.69 · official $4,833.69 (match) · 996 history records