Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea36…a263 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$6
politics 23% $0
world 19% $0
tech 13% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.1%
all 46 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage301d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $24 −$3 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 28 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $7 $0 -5%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3800 on August 27? Aug 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 25 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $8 −$2 -31%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 52m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $41 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $41 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $41 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $41 28d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $15 289d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $5 293d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $9 293d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 294d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 294d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $2 294d
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? SELL No 97¢ $2 294d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 294d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? SELL No 100¢ $3 294d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 99¢ $14 294d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 294d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 294d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 294d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 294d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 294d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 294d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records