Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EA
0xea2f…a8ef
politics · 273 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
−$1,774 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,780 · open −$1,715
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$11,287
Realized−$1,780
Unrealized−$1,715
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses111 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)265 / 273
Avg bet$384
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 9 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$543
30 days−$6,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10,324 $8,916 −$1,408 (-14%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $668 $1,019 +$351 (+53%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $721 $755 +$34 (+5%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $289 $350 +$61 (+21%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $286 $185 −$101 (-35%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $661 $51 −$610 (-92%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 49¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $3 −$33 (-91%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-85%)
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 4¢ 0¢ $824 $0 −$824 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 03 $440 +$281 +64%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $854 −$824 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $5,470 −$3,826 -70%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during events in Rockland County May 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $1,813 −$1,186 -65%
Will Trump say "Finland" during Coast Guard event? May 22 $2 +$3 +204%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Coast Guard event? May 22 $14 +$8 +56%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn May 19 $458 −$427 -93%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 11 $2,358 −$165 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 10 $8 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $770 +$1,729 +225%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay May 09 $20 −$4 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $2,651 −$1,893 -71%
Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $1 +$2 +164%
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $59 +$90 +152%
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $480 +$834 +174%
Will Trump say "Mars" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $111 −$105 -95%
Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $522 −$161 -31%
Will Trump say "My Father" or "Fred" this week? (April 20 - 26) Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Apprentice" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during T Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 22 $516 −$515 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 20 $93 −$28 -31%
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 17 $42 +$85 +204%
Will Trump say "Common sense" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Medal of Freedom" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $183 −$169 -92%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election? Apr 12 $152 −$151 -99%
Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? Apr 12 $271 −$266 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,643 +$4,554 +172%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 07 $2,140 −$109 -5%
Will Trump say "Nuclear dust" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $41 −$41 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $720 −$50 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 30 $16 −$9 -53%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of March Mar 29 $80 +$18 +23%
Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican pri Mar 28 $22 −$19 -88%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 28 $40 +$12 +32%
Will Trump say "Finish the Job" this week? (March 29) Mar 28 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Mar 28 $237 −$234 -99%
Will Trump say "Common Sense" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $1 $0 +45%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $19 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 63% −$2,121
world 18% −$390
economics 8% −$2,141
other 7% +$4,855
culture 3% −$2,583
crypto 1% −$829
sports 0% −$279
finance 0% +$7
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY Yes 1¢ $75 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $471 9d
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY No 0¢ $69 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $66 9d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY Yes 1¢ $107 10d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $92 10d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY Yes 1¢ $48 10d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $92 10d
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY No 5¢ $219 10d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY Yes 1¢ $34 10d
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY No 10¢ $566 11d
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY Yes 8¢ $421 11d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $132 11d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $220 11d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $88 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,644 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,000 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $204 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $57 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $188 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 5¢ $156 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 5¢ $74 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 8¢ $246 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 9¢ $95 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 38% -69.6%
≤90d 74 -25.8% -32.8% 32% 30% -27.2%
all 265 +25.6% +13.7% 42% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 38% -11.6%
10% +2.8% 32% -20.1%
15% -7.2% 28% -27.8%
20% -16.3% 23% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,286.82 · official $11,307.36 (match) · 3500 history records