Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea2e…1e57 other 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$951 (+19%) realized +$953 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$798
sports 18% +$324
world 6% −$43
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.1% -3.1% 56% 56% +17.4%
≤30d 36 +7.1% -3.1% 56% 56% +17.4%
≤90d 36 +7.1% -3.1% 56% 56% +17.4%
all 36 +7.1% -3.1% 56% 56% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 56% +17.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 36% +6.2%
15% -20.9% 31% -4.1%
20% -28.6% 22% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$17 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.93 per $1 lost it wins $4.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized+$953
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions30
Markets (closed)36 / 66
History coverage4d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 50¢ 48¢ $700 $679 −$21 (-3%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 100¢ $100 $182 +$82 (+82%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 100¢ $25 $58 +$33 (+132%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $33 −$12 (-28%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No 79¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 70¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet? No 74¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 56¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $252 +$93 +37%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 24 $10 −$1 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $202 +$126 +62%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $20 +$16 +82%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$6 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 +$50 +188%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $276 +$157 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $203 +$273 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$96 +47%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 +$9 +17%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $301 +$32 +11%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 +$81 +226%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$74 +206%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $48 −$47 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $311 +$35 +11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 +$76 +298%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $613 +$89 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $498 +$113 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 98¢ $345 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 15m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 16¢ $92 37m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 55m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 55m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $151 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 70¢ $101 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 31¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,271.73 · official $1,280.78 (match) · 187 history records