Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea29…9747 weather 389 markets active 20h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,476 (-1%) realized −$2,748 · open +$272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%372W / 6L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$460per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$513
14 days−$468
30 days−$3,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$2,541
finance 5% +$23
tech 3% +$14
other 1% +$24
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$31
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 129 +13.2% +2.4% 97% 1% -13.2%
≤90d 378 +4.9% -5.1% 98% 1% -10.9%
all 378 +4.9% -5.1% 98% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 1% -10.9%
10% -14.1% 1% -19.5%
15% -22.4% 1% -27.3%
20% -30.0% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$565) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$544 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$5,938
Realized−$2,748
Unrealized+$272
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses372 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)378 / 389
History coverage90d
Avg bet$460
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $2,400 $2,634 +$234 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,531 $2,542 +$11 (+0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $654 $674 +$20 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? No 64¢ 76¢ $64 $76 +$12 (+18%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $454 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $381 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,440 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 15 $1,105 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2,226 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $351 −$144 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $255 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $419 −$418 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 14 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $363 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 12 $3,395 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on June Jun 12 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 11 Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 11 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 106°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $625 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2,561 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $242 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on June Jun 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on June Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 06 $1,529 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 06 $1,898 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on June 5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on June Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 06 $749 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $290 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 05 $558 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 04 $2,788 +$12 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 03 $938 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 03 $1,551 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 03 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on June Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 2? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $345 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3,299 +$4 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 on June 2? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 02 $481 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 02 $1,004 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $144 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $99 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $23 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $334 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $331 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $38 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $23 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $400 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $14 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $27 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $22 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $561 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $124 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $426 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $224 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $378 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,219 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $80 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $352 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,938.17 · official $5,938.17 (match) · 1554 history records