Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea29…3600 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,168 (-26%) realized −$2,140 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate78%49W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$1,977
14 days−$2,302
30 days−$2,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$2,263
crypto 4% +$18
sports 1% −$100
finance 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.0% -26.7% 17% 17% -46.5%
≤30d 12 -30.4% -37.0% 33% 17% -48.4%
≤90d 63 -7.2% -16.0% 78% 38% -46.8%
all 63 -7.2% -16.0% 78% 38% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -46.8%
10% -24.1% 5% -51.9%
15% -31.4% 2% -56.5%
20% -38.1% 2% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$171 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2,570
Realized−$2,140
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses49 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage47d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 72¢ $2,500 $2,517 +$17 (+1%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $98 $53 −$45 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 22 $30 −$2 -7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $693 −$317 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$51 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4,068 −$1,691 -42%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $251 −$195 -77%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 07 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 07 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 07 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 07 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 07 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 07 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 07 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 07 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 07 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 07 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 07 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $39 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $27 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 27h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 13¢ $91 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $6 29h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 13¢ $6 31h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $1 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $1 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $18 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $1 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $3 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $7 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,570.30 · official $2,570.30 (match) · 201 history records