Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea29…9487 politics 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$851per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$69
other 7% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.8%
all 30 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$907) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage71d
Avg bet$851
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,772 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $880 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $890 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $902 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $298 −$37 -12%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $955 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 25h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $878 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $879 7d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $877 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $878 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 11d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $880 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 15d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 16d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $881 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $882 22d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $887 23d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $888 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $883 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $884 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $889 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $890 28d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $885 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $886 31d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $888 32d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $890 32d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $891 34d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $892 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $893 36d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $894 37d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 38d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.59 · official $25.59 (match) · 111 history records