Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea29…c160 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$361 (-51%) realized −$361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$392
other 10% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -27.2% -34.1% 35% 29% -27.7%
≤30d 17 -27.2% -34.1% 35% 29% -27.7%
≤90d 19 -34.8% -41.0% 32% 26% -61.9%
all 19 -34.8% -41.0% 32% 26% -61.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 26% -61.9%
10% -46.7% 26% -65.5%
15% -51.8% 21% -68.9%
20% -56.6% 16% -71.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$37 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage235d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $34 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$49 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$26 +98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $27 +$1 +5%
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Jun 21 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $180 October 27-November 2? May 16 $322 −$322 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? May 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $46 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $52 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $53 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 17h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 17h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 17h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 11¢ $2 17h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 17h
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $26 18h
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.50 · 40 history records