Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea27…35fc crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$96 (+15%) realized +$134 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$51
crypto 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -50.8% -55.5% 25% 17% +4.4%
≤90d 12 -50.8% -55.5% 25% 17% +4.4%
all 15 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 27% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 27% +4.8%
10% -46.7% 27% -5.3%
15% -51.9% 13% -14.4%
20% -56.6% 13% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$5 · ×5.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage115d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 27¢ 12¢ $70 $32 −$38 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $227 −$25 -11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $106 +$90 +85%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $132 +$32 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 27 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 27 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 27 $4 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 27¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 38¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 32¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 36¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 62¢ $16 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 31¢ $8 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 70¢ $33 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 30¢ $9 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 26¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 76¢ $52 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 36¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 40¢ $85 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 23¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 91¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $65 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 37¢ $64 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 38¢ $67 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $91 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 36¢ $91 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 26¢ $68 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $111 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $68 8d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY MOUZ 30¢ $8 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.41 · official $32.41 (match) · 55 history records