trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $4 | $5 | +$0 (+4%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 54¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+62%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-58%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $48 | +$1 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 08 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 08 | $12 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $4 | $0 | +7% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $4 | $0 | -6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 05 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will BSW be part of the next German government? | May 07 | $7 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Greens be part of the next German government? | May 07 | $173 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Solana reach $170 in April? | May 06 | $4 | −$3 | -66% |
| Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? | Apr 30 | $97 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Apr 30 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | Apr 29 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 29 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Apr 29 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? | Apr 29 | $189 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 40% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 36% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 36% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 30% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.1% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -33.5% |