Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea21…920e world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$6
other 26% −$2
sports 23% −$12
politics 10% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 14% -5.7%
≤30d 23 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 3% -9.3%
all 31 -3.4% -12.6% 35% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage520d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 +$9 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $34 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $109 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $74 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $110 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $74 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $26 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $36 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $12 $0 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $254 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jan 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 96¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $34 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $30 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $6 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.92 · official $38.92 (match) · 131 history records