Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea21…f753 weather 1005 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$87 (+1%) realized +$89 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%516W / 485L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$5
14 days+$20
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$56
other 0% −$3
world 0% +$2
sports 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +7.5% -2.8% 58% 36% -8.8%
≤30d 459 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 33% -7.8%
≤90d 908 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 34% -8.3%
all 1001 -6.3% -15.3% 52% 34% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 34% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 20% -17.2%
15% -30.8% 14% -25.2%
20% -37.6% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses516 / 485
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1001 / 1005
History coverage103d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Yes 81¢ 96¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 88¢ 74¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$8 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +668%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $13 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $13 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $6 46m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 64¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.19 · official $41.50 (match) · 3133 history records