Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea1d…e993 world 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-1%) realized −$239 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate82%160W / 34L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$39
14 days−$30
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$893
other 15% +$141
culture 7% +$64
politics 6% +$145
sports 4% −$252
tech 2% +$12
economics 2% +$12
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.7% -15.5% 87% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 82 -4.1% -13.2% 88% 1% -11.9%
≤90d 154 -3.5% -12.7% 83% 3% -12.6%
all 194 -2.3% -11.6% 82% 5% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 5% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 3% -20.1%
15% -27.8% 2% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$81 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$2,365
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses160 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions45
Markets (closed)194 / 236
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $488 $514 +$26 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $219 $235 +$17 (+8%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $192 $194 +$2 (+1%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 97¢ 100¢ $151 $155 +$4 (+2%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $88 $90 +$2 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 89¢ 93¢ $85 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 96¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 81¢ 100¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+23%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 80¢ $37 $31 −$6 (-15%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 97¢ 97¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $0 −$13 -4384%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $81 −$72 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $247 +$5 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $595 +$23 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? Jun 14 $49 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $95 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $435 +$7 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $94 +$2 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $39 −$6 -15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 08 $473 +$11 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $98 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $70 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +6%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $567 +$9 +2%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $26 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $69 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $281 +$6 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $677 +$42 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $133 +$2 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $102 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $625 −$340 -54%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 27 $30 +$1 +5%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $62 −$8 -13%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $48 −$48 -98%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 25 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 25 $534 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 22m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $7 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $43 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 95¢ $5 4h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $38 7h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY No 99¢ $44 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria $1 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 15¢ $7 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $17 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $5 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $17 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $13 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $13 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $5 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $12 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $22 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $11 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $16 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $12 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,365.31 · official $2,364.50 (match) · 3500 history records