Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea1d…60dd world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2
other 22% −$4
culture 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 34 -3.0% -12.2% 41% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage450d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $70 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $6 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $68 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 07 $24 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 6 at 5PM ET? Jul 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 01 $21 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $5 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $30 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $35 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $29 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $6 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $35 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $35 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $12 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $19 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $31 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $38 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $38 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $15 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $15 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records