Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea1c…4daf sports 853 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,804 (+0%) realized +$2,802 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%833W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$2,875per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$2,746
other 21% +$2,698
weather 13% +$958
world 11% +$417
politics 9% +$491
tech 2% −$791
economics 1% +$43
culture 1% +$25
crypto 1% +$15
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 164 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 459 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 2% -9.4%
all 852 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,796) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$108 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.07 per $1 lost it wins $5.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$2,802
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses833 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)852 / 853
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$2,875
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Toronto Marlies win American Hockey League? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $357 $359 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 19 $94 +$1 +1%
ITF Monastir: Yelyzaveta Chainykova vs Matilde Mariani Jun 19 $204 $0 +0%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Oscar Brown vs George Lazarov Jun 19 $204 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Honda (-1.5) vs Heck (+1.5) Jun 19 $256 $0 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $414 +$1 +0%
Stankovic vs. Spiteri: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $204 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Stankovic vs Spiteri Jun 18 $260 $0 +0%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Dalila Spiteri Jun 18 $188 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Vaccari vs Rodenas Jun 18 $199 $0 +0%
Vaccari vs. Rodenas: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $199 $0 +0%
ITF Monastir: Ludovico Vaccari vs Pedro Rodenas Jun 18 $285 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Rocha vs Andaloro Jun 18 $185 $0 +0%
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 18 $299 $0 +0%
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Herea (-1.5) vs Rocchetti (+1.5) Jun 18 $106 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $270 $0 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Naoya Honda Jun 18 $199 $0 +0%
Bajraliu vs. Tsygourova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $230 $0 +0%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Aishi Das Jun 18 $203 $0 +0%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Sergi Fita Juan vs Michiel De Krom Jun 17 $318 $0 +0%
ITF Gyula: Axel Huysmans vs Nico Hipfl Jun 17 $332 $0 +0%
Will Trent Holbrook be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate? Jun 17 $314 $0 +0%
Will Texas win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 17 $24,752 +$48 +0%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $5,127 +$5 +0%
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $1,594 +$2 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13,205 +$84 +1%
Will William Karlsson lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? Jun 15 $479 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Avdeeva (-1.5) vs Vedder (+1.5) Jun 14 $178 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of Nati Jun 11 $3,247 +$3 +0%
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $3,247 +$3 +0%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $1,383 +$3 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $4,269 +$4 +0%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $2,790 +$3 +0%
Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $4,245 +$4 +0%
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1,898 +$2 +0%
Will Trump announce Stacey Dixon as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $3,597 +$3 +0%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 11 $607 +$6 +1%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Jun 11 $710 +$2 +0%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $172 +$42 +24%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $1,667 +$6 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $334 $0 +0%
Will Rakesh Christian advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Jun 10 $728 +$1 +0%
Will Fiona Ma advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary Jun 10 $382 +$1 +0%
Will Jeyson Lopez advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Prim Jun 10 $1,144 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Venezuela? Jun 10 $6,507 +$6 +0%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $3,867 +$7 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $1,230 +$59 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Toronto Marlies win American Hockey League? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Toronto Marlies win American Hockey League? BUY Yes 98¢ $76 1h
Will Toronto Marlies win American Hockey League? BUY Yes 98¢ $232 1h
Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY Yes 99¢ $84 12h
ITF Monastir: Yelyzaveta Chainykova vs Matilde Mariani BUY Matilde Mariani 100¢ $204 16h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Oscar Brown vs George Lazarov BUY George Lazarov 100¢ $204 17h
Set Handicap: Honda (-1.5) vs Heck (+1.5) BUY Heck 100¢ $256 19h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 100¢ $414 19h
Stankovic vs. Spiteri: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $204 38h
Set 2 Winner: Stankovic vs Spiteri BUY Spiteri 100¢ $260 38h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Dalila Spiteri BUY Dalila Spiteri 100¢ $188 38h
Vaccari vs. Rodenas: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $199 39h
Set 2 Winner: Vaccari vs Rodenas BUY Rodenas 100¢ $199 39h
ITF Monastir: Ludovico Vaccari vs Pedro Rodenas BUY Pedro Rodenas 100¢ $285 39h
Set 1 Winner: Rocha vs Andaloro BUY Andaloro 100¢ $185 39h
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 100¢ $299 39h
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin BUY Pietro Fellin 100¢ $100 39h
Set Handicap: Herea (-1.5) vs Rocchetti (+1.5) BUY Rocchetti 100¢ $106 40h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Tanguy Genier 100¢ $114 40h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Tanguy Genier 100¢ $156 40h
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Naoya Honda BUY Naoya Honda 100¢ $199 41h
Bajraliu vs. Tsygourova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $230 41h
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Aishi Das BUY Aishi Das 100¢ $203 46h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Sergi Fita Juan vs Michiel De Krom BUY Michiel De Krom 100¢ $318 2d
ITF Gyula: Axel Huysmans vs Nico Hipfl BUY Nico Hipfl 100¢ $332 2d
Will Trent Holbrook be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate? BUY No 100¢ $314 2d
Will Texas win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12,775 3d
Will Texas win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 100¢ $11,977 3d
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,594 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.75 · official $358.57 (match) · 3500 history records