Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea1a…baf2 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%34W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$49
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$37
crypto 24% −$20
sports 13% −$10
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 42% +15.2%
≤30d 87 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 36% -9.0%
≤90d 87 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 36% -9.0%
all 87 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 36% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 36% -9.0%
10% -35.7% 31% -17.7%
15% -41.9% 26% -25.7%
20% -47.6% 22% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses34 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage12d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $42 +$34 +81%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$2 +14%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $71 +$11 +15%
Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $1 $0 -24%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$3 +151%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 +$1 +73%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$7 +326%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$5 +72%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 +$5 +74%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +197%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 +$15 +15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 21h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $44 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $38 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 43h
Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 0¢ $0 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Panama vs. C BUY 5¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records