Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EA 0xea1a…bf1a weather 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,392 (-14%) realized −$3,323 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$154
14 days−$2,513
30 days−$2,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$2,003
politics 14% −$1,146
other 11% +$15
sports 6% −$70
weather 3% +$89
crypto 1% −$292
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% +33.4%
≤30d 23 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 39% -21.3%
≤90d 39 -20.3% -27.9% 28% 26% -21.9%
all 56 -8.1% -16.8% 43% 41% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 41% -21.8%
10% -24.8% 36% -29.3%
15% -32.1% 30% -36.1%
20% -38.7% 23% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$141 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$3,323
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions17
Markets (closed)56 / 75
History coverage202d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $25 $32 +$6 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Yes 33¢ 31¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 26? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $45 +$55 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $42 +$58 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $57 +$53 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 24 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 +$44 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $52 +$48 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $9,826 −$2,352 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $198 −$198 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$19 +162%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $403 +$130 +32%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $404 +$184 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,237 +$144 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $301 −$300 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,814 +$193 +11%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $141 −$39 -28%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 05 $1,209 −$293 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,392 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Apr 22 $507 −$23 -5%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec Apr 22 $1,023 −$812 -79%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Apr 21 $440 −$16 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $441 $0 +0%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $38 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $1,902 −$20 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $2 $0 -0%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 17 $122 −$3 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $395 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $150 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 21 $8 +$7 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 18 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 18 $4 +$4 +91%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%? Feb 18 $10 +$11 +112%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 13 $18 +$13 +72%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $20 +$14 +72%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.04 · official $299.05 (match) · 257 history records