Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea16…4bd8 crypto 163 markets active 4d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$212 (+3%) realized +$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%83W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$259
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$86
crypto 46% −$90
other 1% +$3
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -24.8%
≤30d 22 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 55% -13.7%
≤90d 163 -10.1% -18.7% 51% 49% -9.8%
all 163 -10.1% -18.7% 51% 49% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 49% -9.8%
10% -26.5% 47% -18.5%
15% -33.6% 45% -26.4%
20% -40.1% 37% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$32 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses83 / 80
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage67d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $281 −$277 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$48 +93%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $193 −$190 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $248 +$103 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $178 +$70 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $87 +$91 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $53 +$51 +97%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $188 −$185 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $150 −$148 -99%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $280 +$188 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $81 +$66 +81%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $468 +$115 +24%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $190 +$90 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 16 $64 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $293 −$8 -3%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 16 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 16 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 16 $11 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 16 $52 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 16 $52 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 16 $73 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 16 $52 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 15 $69 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 14 $99 +$44 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 14 $48 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 14 $52 +$34 +66%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $109 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 14 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 14 $67 +$35 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 14 $84 +$36 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $281 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $48 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $193 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $248 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $248 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $178 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $178 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $87 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $71 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $82 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 6d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $188 9d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 55¢ $150 10d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 99¢ $147 10d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 54¢ $81 10d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M SELL Iwo Baraniewski 99¢ $582 10d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Iwo Baraniewski 79¢ $468 10d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $468 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 317 history records