Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea15…dcad sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,762 (-89%) realized −$1,762 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,762
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.3% +14.2% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤30d 19 -30.2% -36.9% 37% 37% -23.9%
≤90d 20 -26.5% -33.5% 40% 40% -22.2%
all 22 -33.2% -39.5% 36% 36% -97.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 36% -97.1%
10% -45.3% 36% -97.4%
15% -50.6% 36% -97.6%
20% -55.4% 18% -97.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$128 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$1,762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage94d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 +$5 +172%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $4 +$5 +133%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $6 +$3 +49%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 30 $5 +$3 +49%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $5 +$3 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $3 +$4 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) May 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 Mar 14 $163 −$163 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 246.5 Mar 14 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 36¢ $3 31h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 13d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 15d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 15d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $0 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 17d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 18d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 18d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $0 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 26d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 28d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 29d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 69¢ $2 31d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $146 31d
Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 BUY Over 51¢ $163 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.03 · official $154.03 (match) · 71 history records