Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea13…7bc1 crypto 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,646 (-16%) realized −$7,646 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%103W / 152L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$885
7 days−$1,033
14 days−$1,033
30 days−$2,475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$8,175
sports 6% −$255
other 3% −$1,110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -27.7% -34.6% 37% 34% -28.9%
≤30d 94 -19.7% -27.4% 38% 36% -20.6%
≤90d 161 -14.8% -22.9% 40% 39% -19.0%
all 255 -18.6% -26.4% 40% 38% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 38% -26.6%
10% -33.4% 34% -33.6%
15% -39.8% 31% -40.0%
20% -45.7% 29% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$175 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses103 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage208d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $389 −$370 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $312 −$300 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $253 −$171 -67%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $311 −$305 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $301 +$200 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$177 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $204 −$151 -74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $31 −$22 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $258 +$214 +83%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $129 +$104 +81%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$41 +82%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $133 −$130 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$135 -67%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$82 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $186 +$148 +80%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $85 +$154 +182%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $142 −$140 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $132 +$89 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 +$267 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$85 +276%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $132 −$130 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $45 −$44 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +37%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 01 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $376 −$362 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 01 $220 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $315 +$276 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 01 $258 +$183 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $270 −$252 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $213 −$205 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 01 $422 +$572 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 43m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 19¢ $83 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1782 history records