Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea12…0c05 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 17% −$1
culture 11% −$2
sports 7% −$2
politics 7% +$13
crypto 4% $0
weather 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.6% -8.9% 40% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -8.1%
10% -19.3% 3% -16.9%
15% -27.1% 3% -24.9%
20% -34.3% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage488d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 45¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $41 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $41 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $80 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 05 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 30 $19 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $1 $0 +4%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -71%
Ye divorce before April? Mar 28 $1 $0 -29%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $24 $0 +1%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $24 $0 -1%
Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $24 $0 +0%
Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida Mar 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will "In the Shadow of the Cypress" win Best Animated Short Film at th Mar 02 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 02 $25 $0 +0%
Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) Feb 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Feb 25 $9 +$12 +131%
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Feb 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $35 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $42 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $42 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $41 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $15 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $27 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $42 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $41 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $41 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $10 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.48 · official $4.14 (match) · 121 history records