Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea10…a070 sports 927 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$326 (+1%) realized +$456 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%418W / 495L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day93.8pace
Fees−$405est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$3,242
other 9% −$55
politics 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 51% -14.9%
≤30d 913 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 44% -19.3%
≤90d 913 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 44% -19.3%
all 913 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 44% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 44% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 41% -27.0%
15% -31.0% 36% -34.1%
20% -37.8% 31% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$28 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$456
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses418 / 495
Est. fees paid−$405
Open positions16
Markets (closed)913 / 927
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day93.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 913 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic Eva Vedder 71¢ 100¢ $83 $116 +$34 (+41%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 45¢ 100¢ $28 $62 +$34 (+122%)
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs UNO MILLE 60¢ 100¢ $23 $38 +$15 (+67%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Las Vegas Aces 74¢ 94¢ $23 $30 +$6 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Guara Esports 57¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$9 (+75%)
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5) Acend 47¢ 63¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner UNO MILLE 41¢ 100¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+144%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 18¢ 40¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+119%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? No 51¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $66 $2 −$65 (-97%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 21¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs Esport BERG (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A 6666 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Fluxo 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will HUS Agadir vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? No 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports - Map 2 Winner METANOIA WOLVES 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 28 $5 +$6 +138%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 28 $29 +$67 +233%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2 +$1 +38%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $26 +$47 +183%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $53 +$20 +39%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia Jun 28 $16 +$2 +12%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire Jun 28 $36 −$6 -17%
T20 Blast, Women: Lancashire Thunder vs Warwickshire Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Nottinghamshire Jun 28 $3 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $12 −$1 -6%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Somerset Jun 28 $13 +$2 +18%
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 28 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $19 +$11 +61%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $5 +$2 +53%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $2 $0 +32%
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1 +$2 +105%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $21 +$9 +42%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Branko Djuric vs Andrea De Marchi Jun 28 $61 +$34 +56%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winne Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 28 $8 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert Jun 28 $24 +$12 +49%
ITF Monastir: Karla Bartel vs Arina Arifullina Jun 28 $15 +$15 +104%
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar Jun 28 $14 +$16 +117%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 28 $36 +$15 +42%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings Jun 28 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $26 +$9 +35%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $86 +$32 +37%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Guara Esports 65¢ $6 13m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $27 24m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $1 24m
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Guara Esports 50¢ $6 25m
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41m
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41m
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 3¢ $2 42m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 45m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $64 46m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 74¢ $23 54m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $7 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY METANOIA WOLVES 62¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions BUY UNO MILLE 62¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions BUY UNO MILLE 49¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $0 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $6 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $25 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $15 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $4 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $16 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $8 1h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic BUY Eva Vedder 71¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 21¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs Esport BERG (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 26¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $29 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $14 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.21 · official $318.11 (match) · 3500 history records