trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +9.8% | -0.6% | 100% | 0% | -0.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +9.8% | -0.6% | 100% | 0% | -0.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -27.8% | -34.7% | 67% | 0% | -2.7% |
| all | 8 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 75% | 0% | -3.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.3% | 0% | -3.0% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 0% | -12.3% |
| 15% | -33.3% | 0% | -20.8% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 0% | -28.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | $4,019 | $4,747 | +$728 (+18%) |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 84¢ | $1,889 | $1,957 | +$68 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 28 | $1,815 | +$179 | +10% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | Apr 14 | $3,769 | +$251 | +7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET | Apr 02 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Mar 27 | $2,092 | +$148 | +7% |
| Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confi | Mar 08 | $1,960 | +$129 | +7% |
| Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? | Mar 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET | Mar 06 | $10 | −$2 | -18% |
| Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? | Mar 06 | $64 | +$5 | +8% |