Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EA 0xea06…47c9 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$55
other 32% $0
sports 32% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -11.2%
all 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 50% -11.2%
10% -16.1% 50% -19.7%
15% -24.2% 50% -27.4%
20% -31.6% 50% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$55 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $55 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.54 · official $49.54 (match) · 5 history records