Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea06…359d crypto 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized +$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%109W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day127.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$76
other 14% −$77
sports 12% −$9
politics 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 37% -9.8%
≤30d 216 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 37% -9.8%
≤90d 216 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 37% -9.8%
all 216 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 37% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 37% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 31% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 19% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses109 / 107
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions24
Markets (closed)216 / 240
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day127.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 21¢ 20¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 69¢ 46¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-32%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 18¢ 20¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 30¢ 54¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$31 -86%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$6 +26%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$11 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -14%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $48 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $13 −$5 -37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$8 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $3 33m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 33m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 51m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 51m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 20¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $13 4h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $2 6h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 65¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 34¢ $2 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $0 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 21¢ $5 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 8h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.51 · official $226.51 (match) · 1116 history records