Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea05…81e0 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+2%) realized +$61 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$41
14 days+$47
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$55
other 11% −$1
finance 3% +$1
sports 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.3% -4.8% 40% 10% -5.7%
≤30d 30 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 7% -6.8%
≤90d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 6% -7.7%
all 42 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -7.9%
10% -18.2% 7% -16.7%
15% -26.1% 5% -24.7%
20% -33.3% 5% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage521d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $109 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $129 +$2 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $166 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $117 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $73 +$41 +56%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $43 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $73 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $90 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $118 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $122 +$10 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $6 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $46 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $71 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $86 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $89 +$7 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $5 +$2 +32%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $265 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $310 −$3 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $235 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $5 $0 +0%
Northern Iowa vs. Belmont Mar 04 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $101 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $109 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $109 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $89 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $36 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $52 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $58 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $64 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $81 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $97 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $57 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $96 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.34 · official $100.20 (match) · 184 history records