Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E9 0xe9fe…d847 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$9
crypto 48% −$10
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.5% -2.7% 58% 42% -7.0%
≤30d 12 +7.5% -2.7% 58% 42% -7.0%
≤90d 15 +3.4% -6.4% 60% 47% -10.3%
all 15 +3.4% -6.4% 60% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 47% -10.3%
10% -15.4% 47% -18.9%
15% -23.6% 40% -26.8%
20% -31.1% 20% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage66d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 11 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $46 59m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $43 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $43 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $18 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $13 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.46 · official $48.46 (match) · 34 history records