Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E9 0xe9fe…cad2 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+3%) realized +$103 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$135
politics 8% $0
sports 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤30d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤90d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
all 10 -35.4% -41.6% 40% 40% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 40% -5.5%
10% -47.2% 20% -14.5%
15% -52.3% 10% -22.8%
20% -57.0% 10% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$83 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage140d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 68¢ $53 $50 −$3 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 24¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $170 +$29 +17%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Mar 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1,200 +$422 +35%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Mar 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Mar 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 15 $263 −$263 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 15 $116 +$74 +64%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $133 −$117 -88%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $565 +$97 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 58m
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 59m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $53 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $170 2h
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t SELL Yes 65¢ $227 92d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 65¢ $227 93d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,200 93d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $263 98d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 98d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $116 98d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 57¢ $133 98d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? BUY No 56¢ $99 119d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY No 39¢ $8 119d
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina BUY Svitolina 9¢ $10 138d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $662 139d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 139d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 87¢ $528 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.09 · official $145.58 · 27 history records