Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E9 0xe9fd…4f20 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$102 (+12%) realized +$114 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$234
other 17% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.5% +17.2% 64% 64% +14.9%
≤30d 11 +29.5% +17.2% 64% 64% +14.9%
≤90d 11 +29.5% +17.2% 64% 64% +14.9%
all 11 +29.5% +17.2% 64% 64% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.2% 64% +14.9%
10% +6.0% 64% +3.9%
15% -4.2% 64% -6.1%
20% -13.6% 64% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$64 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 31¢ 50¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+63%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 37¢ 34¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $25 +$37 +145%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$51 +165%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $148 +$112 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $104 −$103 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$42 +65%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $169 +$145 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $25 25m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $62 26m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $26 44m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $25 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $30 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 37¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $260 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $148 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 33¢ $51 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $104 32h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $51 44h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $26 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $56 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $107 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $65 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $313 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $169 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.40 · official $63.40 (match) · 22 history records